Based on University of Texas data and modeling, Williamson County authorities estimate they will have as many as 100,000 cases of confirmed coronavirus by mid-August.
The latest estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau puts Williamson County’s population at 590,551 residents.
“Death projections are in the hundreds,” County Judge Bill Gravell said during a Tuesday county commissioners meeting.
The March 26 UT health care demand model provided numbers for the five-county Austin-Round Rock metro area but not specifically for Williamson County. Officials calculated the local estimates by factoring that its population is 25.89% of the metro area and assuming that it has a compliance rate of 75% with social distancing, said spokeswoman Connie Odom.
UT researchers said that calculating infection estimates specifically for Williamson County would take time. They did not immediately answer questions Tuesday afternoon about the validity of how Williamson County officials calculated their estimates.
CORONAVIRUS IN TEXAS: What we know, latest updates
UT released a report Monday with new figures on projected health care demand. But the county didn’t know about the new report and their Tuesday estimates don’t reflect those numbers, Odom said.
Based on the March UT model, county officials estimated that the number of people who will require hospitalization will be close to 5,000, including 787 patients who will be in intensive care.
Over time, 500 people in Williamson County will need ventilators, Gravell said. The county currently has 65 ventilators for children and 221 ventilators for adults, he said in late March.
The Williamson County and Cities Health District announced Tuesday that a fourth person has died from COVID-19 and six new cases were confirmed, bringing the total to 87. Cases will climb about April 14 and peak in mid-May to early June, officials said.
The Commissioner Court approved $2.5 million Tuesday to respond to the coronavirus epidemic, which will pay for personal protective equipment, such as mask and gowns, for emergency workers; test kits; and overtime for county staff responding to coronavirus-related matters, Odom said.
“Right now, we are under a declaration that may allow for reimbursement from FEMA,” Odom said. “That reimbursement may be up to 75% of eligible expenses.”
EDITOR’S NOTE: This story has been updated to clarify that county officials, not University of Texas researchers, calculated the Williamson County infection estimates.
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