Storms developing over the Austin area mid-week may bring up to 3 inches of much-needed rain to Austin and Central Texas, the National Weather Service said.
Beginning late Tuesday, storms could linger through Friday night, said Ethan Williams, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service. The highest chances for rain, including possibly gusty winds, will be on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, he said.
After midnight on Wednesday, around 1 a.m. to 3 a.m., rain chances will jump to 60% and persist through the evening. After that, chances will decrease a bit on Thursday and Friday, Williams said.
As of Sunday, only 1.26 inches of rainfall had been recorded Austin’s main weather station at Camp Mabry. The site normally records as much as 3.33 inches at this point in the month, according to climate data.
“We were quite above rainfall for the springtime but since May and this month, we kind of fell behind on rainfall,” Williams said.
This week’s possible 1 to 3 inches of rain will catch Austin right up, he said.
Despite the lack of rain this month, Travis County is not in a drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor data.
“That’s an artifact from the amount of rainfall we received this spring,” Williams said.
Camp Mabry recorded 7.84 inches of rainfall in May, 2.88 inches in April and 4.01 inches in March, according to climate data.
Dry spells in the Austin area start to set in in mid- to late summer, so this week’s rain is a welcome development, as long as too much doesn’t fall too fast, Williams said. Large amounts of rain that fall in a short period can lead to flash flooding.
In May, forecasters were predicting Austin would stay in a neutral El Niño weather pattern this summer. That prediction is holding true: Austin is neither in an El Niño or its opposite, a La Niña pattern.
During an El Niño pattern, tropical waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer, and the net effect on Central Texas often is more moisture, while a La Niña is a similar seasonal cooling in the eastern Pacific and typically has the opposite effect.
Storm clouds also could mean a nice reprieve from scorching temperatures. With the rain, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s and low 90s all week, Williams said.
Rain should clear out of the area by Saturday morning, making room for partly sunny skies, the weather service said.
Not only will this week bring rain to the area, but a cloud of dust is expected to arrive on the Texas Gulf Coast, possibly affecting air quality and suppressing tropical storms, at the end of the week, Williams said.
The dust is expected to make its way into the center of the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week, he said. Once it gets to the Texas Gulf Coast, it could potentially get into South-Central Texas.
The cloud, which is coming from the Sahara Desert, is typically a drier air mass, Williams explained. If the dust drifts into South-Central Texas, it could bring down rain chances, he said.
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