For the past two months, significant rainfall has eluded the Austin area, but a persistent La Niña means the dearth of moisture will likely last into the new year.
Weather in Central Texas during a winter La Niña — when the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator cool down — tends to be warmer and drier. The current La Niña strengthened in October and has a 95% chance of lasting until spring, National Weather Service forecasters said.
Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said it is likely drought conditions will worsen in the area.
The Austin area’s descent into dryness means ranches will see less growth of cool season grasses. He said that does not tend to be much of a problem for Central Texas agriculture unless the dryness extends into March when crops are planted.
Since the middle of September, most of Texas has received less than half of its normal amount of autumn rainfall, according to the weather service. Austin’s main weather station at Camp Mabry has only recorded about two-thirds of what the city normally gets by this point in the fall.
The dry weather has even made the Lower Colorado River Authority rethink its annual practice of lowering water levels on some of the Highland Lakes, which it manages for flood control, water supplies and hydroelectric power.
The LCRA on Friday announced that it would not draw down any of the pass-through lakes — Inks, LBJ, Marble Falls and Austin — in 2021. The agency said the draw-down allows lakefront property owners to repair and maintain docks, retaining walls and other structures in the water and helps fight nuisance aquatic vegetation.
Lakes Inks and LBJ were last lowered earlier this year, Lake Marble Falls was lowered in 2019, and Lake Austin was last lowered in 2017 at the request of the city, according to the LCRA.
“With dry weather upon us and the fact we’ve drawn down all the lakes within the last four years, we’ve decided not to lower any of the lakes in 2021,” LCRA General Manager Phil Wilson said in a written statement. “We’ll consider another drawdown next year about this time, for a potential lowering in early 2022.”
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s most recent map released on Thursday shows northeastern Travis County is experiencing severe drought conditions. The rest of the county is listed as being in a moderate drought.
Exceptional drought is affecting about 9.1% of Texas, more than at any time since May 2014, according to the Texas Water Development Board.
“It did happen fairly fast. The past two months have been unusually dry across the state,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
Meteorologists said the Austin area needed to get a good soaking of rain to stave off drought conditions for much of fall because, while the spring was a wet one, it wouldn’t be enough to hold the area over through the end of the year.
“We actually were running above normal (for rainfall) for most of the year and the annual total for Austin finally dipped below normal on November 13,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
September ended with 5.96 inches of rain recorded at Camp Mabry, Austin’s main weather station, National Weather Service data show. Normally, September in Austin produces 2.99 inches of rainfall, according to the weather service.
This year, barely 0.35 inches of rain was recorded at Camp Mabry in October, a month that on average gets 3.88 inches, making it usually one of the rainiest in Austin.
Only a trace of rain has been recorded at Camp Mabry so far this month, according to the weather service.
Grass that grew after the rainy spring is now drying out, putting the Austin area at risk of wildfires, Nielsen-Gammon said. The wildfire threat will rise if dry conditions persist with strong winds and low humidity, he said.
Because of a lack of rain in the county, the Travis County Commissioners Court on Tuesday implemented a burn ban for unincorporated parts of the county.
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