Austin-Travis County health officials say they are “very concerned” about hospital capacity ahead of what could be a deadly end to the pandemic year.
For several weeks, health officials have repeatedly pleaded with residents to abandon plans to gather with extended family over the Thanksgiving holiday to avoid a surge in COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
City and county officials now must wait to see if residents listened to those warnings or if hospitals will be at risk of reaching capacity limits in the next few weeks.
“COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are rising locally, across Texas and the United States,” Austin Public Health Director Stephanie Hayden said in a written statement Friday. “It is critically important that everyone do their part to combat COVID-19 by avoiding gatherings and travel this holiday season.”
She reiterated health guidance to avoid gatherings with people outside your household and to stay home as much as possible in the run-up to Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
“Those who have already gathered or traveled need to make sure that they take the proper precautions to stay safe,” Hayden said.
Those who participated in Thanksgiving gatherings should:
• Get testedat least three to five days after gathering or traveling. If the test is positive, they should isolatethemselves to protect others from getting infected.
• Stay home for seven days after gathering or traveling. Even if the test is negative, they should stay home for the full seven days.
• Sign up for a COVID-19 test through Austin Public Health at austintexas.gov/covid19. If they don’t get tested, it’s safest for them to stay home for 14 days after gathering or traveling.
• Avoid being around people who are at increased risk for severe complications or death from COVID-19 for 14 days after gathering or traveling, regardless of testing.
Hospitalizations already rising
Gov. Greg Abbott in recent months ordered every Texas hospital to reserve at least 10% of its capacity for treating patients with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
Hospitals that are part of a system may reserve less than 10% of its capacity for COVID-19 patients, as long as the cumulative capacity within the entire system is at least 10%.
In Austin-Travis County, Ascension Seton, Baylor Scott & White Health and St. David’s HealthCare on Nov. 19 released a cumulative report saying the 2,473 staffed beds in their hospitals were 79% occupied. Last Wednesday, that number had slipped to 74%.
As of Friday, Austin-Travis County health officials reported that of the 226 people in the hospital for COVID-19, 74 patients were in the ICU and 48 were on ventilators.
Dr. Mark Escott, interim Austin-Travis County health authority, said last week that if Travis County experiences a surge similar to what’s happening in El Paso and Lubbock, hospitals would need all but 74 of the 2,473 staffed beds to care for noncritical coronavirus patients within the area.
While hospitals have enough equipment to handle a surge, they do not have enough staff to treat more than 200 intensive care unit patients for COVID-19, according to Escott.
Of the 483 ICU beds within Ascension Seton, Baylor Scott & White Health and St. David’s HealthCare, 85% were occupied as of Nov. 19. That number dropped only slightly to 82% on Wednesday.
Still, if Travis County enters a surge like what is happening in other parts of Texas, hospitals would likely need 600 staffed ICU beds to handle the demand, according to Escott.
For comparison, El Paso on Friday reported that 907 people were in the hospital for COVID-19. Of those, 307 patients were in the ICU and 188 were on ventilators.
The latest census shows El Paso County has about 839,238 residents, while Travis County has about 1.27 million.
What could happen?
If too many residents ignore the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines and traveled to visit extended family for Thanksgiving, San Antonio, Houston and Austin would likely all be sent into a second surge in a few weeks, according to Escott.
Austin-Travis County health officials said because surges are already happening in Dallas, Fort Worth, Abilene, Amarillo, Longview, Tyler, Midland and Odessa, those counties are having to ask other areas like Austin to help treat their patients.
However, other counties in the state would likely not be able to return the favor if Houston, San Antonio and Austin all surge at the same time.
“We are not immune from a spike in hospitalizations,” Austin Public Health officials said in a written statement. “Indeed, the numbers have been trending in a concerning direction, and it could be a matter of weeks before Austin-Travis County looks more like El Paso.”
As a result of the second surge, hospitals would likely have to halt all elective surgeries once again in Travis County.
On Oct. 8, Abbott issued an order allowing hospitals in some areas like Travis County that reached hospital capacity requirements to resume elective surgeries.
However, if Travis County for seven consecutive days has more than 15% of its total hospitalized patients being treated for the coronavirus, elective surgeries would again have to stop.
Escott said Travis County so far has avoided a catastrophe like what is happening in El Paso because residents have listened to health officials when projections showed a potential surge in cases.
Health officials are worried the holiday may cause individuals to ignore warnings they heeded in the past because gathering with loved ones can be so tempting.
“Additional holidays are around the corner; if people still plan to travel despite public health risk guidance, they should consider the three C’s,” said Janet Pichette, chief epidemiologist for Austin-Travis County. Coverings for faces should be kept on while crowds and confined areas should be avoided.
“We must do our part in the community to keep our families and each other safe,” she said.
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