Austin City Council members on Tuesday will begin discussions on how to reopen the local economy as uncertainty around the continued spread of the coronavirus continues and state orders allowing businesses to reopen expand.
Local health officials have warned that reopening too quickly, and without clear protocols to limit the spread of the disease in place, could cost the county thousands of lives.
In the past month, Austin and Travis County leaders have implemented orders for all but essential workers to stay home unless absolutely necessary, while calling on those out in the community to wear masks, and stay 6 feet away from others.
But on Monday, Gov. Greg Abbott announced plans to allow business throughout the state to reopen in a series of phases beginning Friday, when all businesses will be allowed to reopen at 25% capacity.
Abbott’s Monday order also removed the ability of local authorities to require residents to wear masks, though doing so still is encouraged.
“(Abbott) has said that public health and safety is his first priority and that he will be guided by science, facts, and the doctors,” said Mayor Steve Adler. “We will hold him to that.”
In a message to council members Monday, Adler outlined data from researchers at the University of Texas showing potential outcomes decreasing social distancing guidelines that have been in effect since late March.
Researchers estimate the greater Austin area’s social distancing efforts resulted in a 94% reduction in the transmission of the coronavirus throughout the community from the beginning of city and county isolation orders through April 19.
Uncertainty in the estimate is still very high, ranging from 70% to 100%.
Researchers wrote in a report presented to city and county leaders last week there are still gaps in understanding of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including how widespread asymptomatic transmission and infection have become in the community.
“These results do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of social distancing measures in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area,” the researchers said.
Data also suggest around 13.6% of symptomatic cases are detected.
Despite the uncertainty, city and county leaders are looking to such models to build a roadmap for how to adjust to the spread of the virus as businesses reopen, increasing the number of person-to-person contacts local leaders have fought for the last month to avoid.
At the current estimated infection rate reduction of 94%, Travis County has prevented local healthcare facilities from becoming overwhelmed with infected patients. On Monday, the total number of confirmed cases in the county was 1,464, with 42 dead.
A reduction in that percentage, though, could run up the number of new infections in coming weeks and months to numbers that local healthcare facilities can’t handle.
Adler said modeling data show that if the economy reopens on May 1, and the transmission reduction rate falls below 80%, local hospitals could be overwhelmed.
He said a 40% reduction in the transmission rate would result in a surge that would overload local hospitals in 45 to 60 days, and likely result in new isolation orders.
“We can establish warning signals and set a trigger based on the experience we’ve just lived through and the best advice from medical experts, modelers and doctors,” Adler said. “If we hit the warning points and reach the trigger, we have the ability to return to shelter at home rules to avoid a NYC-style crisis. We will use all the tools available to us at that point to flatten the curve.”
Adler said the best way to ensure hospitals do not become overwhelmed and to save lives is to continue social distancing policies as much as possible. However, he said officials know such policies are not practical over a long period of time. On the other hand, lifting the restrictions altogether, he said, would cause the virus to spread rapidly, and lead more quickly to herd immunity, but at the expense of thousands of lives. Adler said that is not a viable option either.
“There are no easy choices with this virus. The hard truth is we need a vaccine or an effective treatment and nothing short of that will save us from having to make choices that we don’t like,” he said. “We are going to be taking risks. We will be transparent and honest with our community about the science, and those choices and risks.”
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