AUSTIN (KXAN) — For the first time this year, La Niña is forecast to last all winter.
Previous outlooks favored La Niña to form in the fall and only continue into the beginning of winter. That meant that for the period of December-February, meteorological winter, ENSO Neutral had been favored.
But on Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center revised its outlook and now La Niña is favored for meteorological winter with 54% odds, ENSO Neutral at 43% odds and El Niño at just 3%.
ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation and helps describe the climate pattern influenced by the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
When sea surface temperatures are 0.5ºC below average or colder and the atmosphere reacts, we enter a La Niña phase of ENSO. Conversely, El Niño is when the sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.5ºC or warmer as long as the atmosphere reacts.
La Niña winters
Typically a La Niña winter is one in which the Pacific Jet Stream is pushed farther north, keeping the storm track farther away from the southern United States. This means drier and warmer for the south and wetter in parts of the Pacific Northwest and near the Great Lakes region, while being cooler than normal for much of the northern states.
Weak and short duration La Niña
All this comes together to mean that for the second winter in a row, we’re expecting a weak and short duration La Niña. According to the CPC back in 2024, a weaker La Niña is “less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”
In-Depth: Our last weak La Niña winter in Central Texas
While typically warmer and drier during La Niña winter’s in Central Texas, last winter (2024-2025) did not stick to the typical temperature pattern.
Despite a record warm December, the cooler January and February months more than made up for the early winter heat. That meant that we finished winter slightly cooler than average.
Rainfall was lacking with almost a month of rainfall missing over the three month period.
We also had winter weather including a widespread light snow that brought an inch of accumulation to Austin.
Outbreaks of wintry weather aren’t uncommon during La Niña winter’s, partly because of the colder air that usually sets up shop in the northern part of the country. Arctic cold fronts have the potential to bring that cold air all the way down to Texas, even if the majority of winter has milder temperatures.
Last winter also had more freezes than normal as a result.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we get you ready for another La Niña winter in Central Texas.
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